Trade Wars and Earnings Ahead of Black Friday

Nasdaq 100 Forecast:

  • Just last week, a phase one trade deal seemed unlikely before 2020, but trade optimism returned to the market on Monday nevertheless
  • Earnings from Dell and HP might provide short-term volatility while trade wars remain the larger concern
  • Upcoming economic data could also play a part in the Nasdaq’s performance

Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Trade Wars and Earnings Ahead of Black Friday

The Nasdaq 100 trades near record highs at the onset of the shortened holiday week, an environment that could see lower volume and heightened risk of volatility. Since fewer traders are expected to be at their desks, the number of people to exchange shares is lessened, which could see modest moves exacerbated as standing positions are stopped out or reach their limit. With that in mind, events that would typically evoke little market reaction could see mountains made from molehills.

Top Retail Stocks to Watch Ahead of Black Friday

To that end, traders should be cognizant of the various upcoming events. On the earnings side of the market, investors will look to reports from Best Buy, Dell and HP Inc to stoke volatility in the first half of the week. With the larger retail names like Target, Walmart, Home Depot and Lowe’s split on their earnings reports, the smaller companies in the sector will look to provide further color on the performance of the broader retail sector. If earnings disappoint across the board, they could erode sentiment and undermine the Nasdaq 100 into the latter half of the week.

Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May 2019 – November 2019) (Chart 1)

Similarly, a speech from Jerome Powell, advance goods trade balance and durable goods orders are among the list of event risks that could influence the Nasdaq. If, on the other hand, the week goes off without a hitch, investors could look to enjoy a subsequent tailwind from the “Santa Claus Rally” which typically sees the market tick higher into the end of the year. Still, the market will have to weather a series of upcoming events with the VIX at impressively low levels and prime conditions for an unexpected shock. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Top Retail Stocks to Watch Ahead of Black Friday

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