Chinese economic growth seen losing traction – UOB

Economist Ho Woei Chen at UOB Group gives her views on the recently published set of Chinese data releases and their impact on the economic activity.

Key Quotes

“China’s August macroeconomic data pointed to further pressure on 3Q19 growth with industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales weakening broadly from July. An earlier release showed that exports had resumed contraction in August in the absence of frontloading before more additional tariffs are set to be imposed”.

“Sharp slowdown in China’s industrial production is a key concern as the manufacturing sector bears the brunt of the hit from US-China trade tensions”.

“All in all, uncertainties arising from the trade tensions have resulted in weaker manufacturing and investments while the moderating retail sales also indicates that private consumption demand is increasingly being affected as well. The July-August data releases suggest that growth in 3Q19 would moderate further from 6.2% in 2Q19. Our forecast for 3Q19 GDP is at 6.0%”.

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